Which of the following sounds the most unlikely?

A global climate summit with a record number of fossil fuel lobbyists.
Of 27 annual climate summits, 25 have pretty much been failures.
The president of a climate summit, whose key agenda is to cut emissions, says that a phase-out of coal, oil and gas would take the world “back into caves”.
Nations not committing to a phase-down or phase-out of fossil fuels straight out.

The answer is none. All of the above are true.

“Disappointing” is one way to summarize the ongoing 28th annual United Nations climate summit—the Conference of the Parties, or COP—being held in Dubai. It ends on Tuesday (12 December), and critics of the summit have little hope that any decisive commitments, especially on fossil fuels, will take place. Even before this year’s summit kicked off, it had already been characterized by experts as potentially “the most contentious round of climate talks in almost a decade”.

COP is the biggest forum to talk about policies that can help curb rising global temperatures and environmental destruction. (Also read: COP28 climate conference needs to build credibility.)

Right from the start, COP28 has raised many eyebrows. From being held in an oil-rich state whose priority seems to be the expansion of its oil and gas projects to a Saudi-dominated OPEC—short for Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—cartel complaining that the talks are trying to exert “undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels,” this has, arguably, been among the most controversial COP summits. While around 11 pledges and declarations have been announced, these are not legally binding. Besides, on more substantial issues, there seems to be an impasse.

Let’s take a look at some of the key moments and why critics have little hope that COP28 will achieve much.

Doomed from the start? First, even before the talks began, reports by the BBC and the Centre for Climate Reporting revealed that the host nation was trying to use the summit to strike deals and cobble up support for its oil and gas projects. Adding to the apprehension around the UAE’s agenda is the fact that COP28 president Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber is also chairman of the state-run Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC); there were concerns that he would try to push for policies that dilute the much-needed and immediate climate action. (We have written about this in detail in an earlier edition of News Explainer.)

OPEC and the impasse over fossil fuels: Second is the impasse over fossil fuels. The chief of the OPEC cartel—a group of 13 of the world’s biggest oil exporters—reportedly urged member nations to reject any proposals at COP28 that call for targeted fossil fuel cuts rather than emissions.

The final agreement at the UN summit is a contentious issue largely because of the language used to describe the future of fossil fuels. Countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, insist that the conference should only focus on reducing pollution and not directly target the fossil fuels causing it.

On the final deal, so far, as Jaber put it, there seem to be “more areas of divergence than agreement”. Expressing urgency, he urged nations to expedite their negotiations, stressing that the window for closing these gaps is rapidly shrinking.

The urgency comes at a time when scientists have noted that the world will cross the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold by 2029. The 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is the target set under the Paris Agreement in 2015—a treaty where 195 nations pledged to limit the average temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius, while actively aiming for 1.5C. The number is based on several studies that say that if climate change and its irreversible effects have to be prevented, the world’s average temperature cannot exceed the pre-industrial times by over 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, achieving this target is no small feat and requires a significant cut in emissions, which, in turn, means fossil fuels need to be phased out. Data from the World Economic Forum shows that global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement hit a record high of 36.6 billion tonnes last year. A majority of emissions from fossil fuels come from oil.

Now here’s where OPEC comes in.

Last week, several reports, citing a leaked letter signed by OPEC secretary-general Haitham Al Ghais to 13 member nations, revealed the oil producer group’s concern about the possibility of a “fossil fuels phase-out” being part of the final agreement, as it asked its allies to reject any text targeting cuts in fossil fuels.

The letter highlighted potential risks to the “prosperity and future” of the people of the member nations if COP28 leaned towards phasing out fossil fuels. Remember that these countries hold the lion’s share of the world’s oil reserves (80%) and have churned out about 40% of the global oil output in the past decade, according to The Guardian.

The letter was referring to a draft of the COP28 final agreement text under discussion, which the UN climate body released on Tuesday. Interestingly, it released another version of this draft on Friday.

The Friday draft lays out various language options—from “phase out of fossil fuels in line with the best available science: to phasing out “unabated fossil fuels”, or even opting for no language on the matter at all, according to a Reuters report.

“These letters show that fossil fuel interests are starting to realize that the writing is on the wall for dirty energy,” Mohamed Adow of the NGO Power Shift Africa said, according to The Guardian. “Climate change is killing poor people around the globe and these petrostates don’t want COP28 to phase out fossil fuels because it will hurt their short-term profits. It’s shameful.”

The math is simple. Oil-rich countries don’t want COP28 to issue anything decisive on cutting fossil fuels because it simply doesn’t serve their national interests (or those of their countries’ businesses). Instead, they are leaning on carbon capture technology in place of a complete phase-out of fossil fuels. However, according to a UN climate science panel, such technology cannot outdo cutting fossil fuel use worldwide. India has not taken a clear stance but demanded “equity and justice”, affirming that rich nations must lead global climate action.

Clouding of agenda? International affairs, such as the war in Ukraine and Palestine, have also made it harder for the summit to purely focus on climate issues. Palestine, which denounced Israel’s war, declared that the conflict was making it harder to push for climate efforts. Meanwhile, Russia said that Moscow was looking into whether the $300 billion in gold reserves frozen by the West could be used for a climate damage fund.

The elephant in the room: The summit also saw a record number of representatives of some of the most polluting industries. According to the Kick Big Polluters Out coalition, nearly 2,500 fossil fuel lobbyists were granted access at the crucial talks—a 4x rise from last year. We have written about this in detail here: Lobbyists take over COP28. The coalition added that fossil fuel lobbyists received more passes to COP28 than delegates from the 10 most climate vulnerable nations combined (1,509), “underscoring how industry presence is dwarfing that of those on the frontlines of the crisis”. According to Amnesty programme director of climate, economic and social justice and corporate accountability, having fossil fuel lobbyists at the summit is akin to having arms dealers at a peace conference.

Meanwhile, a report by The Guardian also said that the number of lobbyists from industrial agriculture businesses was the highest this year, up 3x from COP27. Apart from oil and gas companies, agribusinesses have drawn much attention and ire of climate activists as livestock emissions pose a major challenge. According to the United Nations Environment Programme, “Livestock emissions—from manure and gastroenteric releases—account for roughly 32% of human-caused methane emissions”.

Bear in mind that methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and primarily contributes to ground-level ozone, a hazardous pollutant. Exposure to this methane-linked ozone pollution has caused 1 million premature deaths every year. According to the UNEP, methane, over a 20-year period, is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide for increasing global warming.

These are some of the key issues that have plagued the summit so far. And even though Jaber has maintained that the deadline for the negotiators to reach an agreement is Tuesday, it seems unlikely that the climate conference will be able to unanimously agree on decisive action against its biggest issue: Phasing out fossil fuels. Importantly, if OPEC’s letter is a directive to member nations, any change in their stance looks difficult—basically, climate action will be a watered-down version of the initial proposals.

Under the UN’s rules, agreements at the climate summit have to be unanimously endorsed; any of the 198 participating nations can thwart a deal. It remains to be seen what the fate of COP28 will be.

Also read | Why COP28 matters to Mukesh Ambani’s ‘new energy’ ambitions